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Evening all, it has been a beautiful day here.
Sun shine and blue skies.
So I managed to get out on the mountain bike to attack some trails for a couple of hours.
For the most part,
The markets came our way today,
That is everything but cable.
But I think we could be looking at a significant top in place after todays action.
More on that later.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Fed Chair Powell Speaks.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: BOE Gov Carney Speaks,
JPY: N/A.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD has continued the five wave pattern lower in a possible wave (c) brown.
The contracting triangle idea for wave 'iv' worked out well so far.
The price has dipped below initial support at 1.2238,
And wave 'v' pink should continue below 1.2154 to complete wave [iv] green.
I have shown another alternate count,
This shows the possibility that wave (i) and (ii) brown are already underway,
If the price turn back up above 1.2350 again,
that will hint at the alternate count,
And wave (iii) could be underway at that point.
Tomorrow;
watch for a break of 1.2154 to complete the larger pattern.
We can then look higher in wave [iii].
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: completing wave (4) blue correction higher.
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
I have switched to the more bearish alternate wave count in GBPUSD today.
the break down out of last nights highs is getting very close to breaking support at 1.3929.
If support at 1.3710 breaks,
We could then be looking at a complete retracement of the rally off the post brexit lows!
The stakes are quite high in cable right now.
The high at 1.4244 is now viewed as a failed fifth wave,
This completes five waves up in wave [c] green,
And should also complete the larger wave (4) blue.
This new wave count is a test in the short term.
If we see a clear five wave pattern down in pink labels,
That will be the clearest indication that the tide has turned.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 1.3923,
And further declines in wave 'iii' pink.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY has broken resistance at 107.29,
And the price is on track for a break above 107.90,
107.90 marks the highest extent of the previous triangle wave (iv) green.
A break of that level is another bullish signal in the larger pattern.
the price is now rising in a possible wave '3' of 'iii',
The minimum target for wave 'iii' is at 108.04,
Where waves 'iii' and 'i' reach equality.
In general, the bullish signs are stacking up now for USDJPY,
A complete impulse wave up in (i) and (ii) green will confirm that this market has turned for a powerful rally higher.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave '3' of 'iii' to carry higher above 107.90.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)
The price continued higher today in a possible wave 'c' of (ii).
The expanded flat pattern wave (ii) grey is now complete,
And this evenings decline may have kicked off wave (iii) grey.
On the 4hr chart,
The price is now back up at the 200MA line,
I want to see a further failure at or below the 200MA
to re-affirm the downside momentum build up.
The overall pattern off the all time high now shows three separate 1,2 waves to the downside.
So, the potential for a larger degree decline is now quite high in wave (iii) of [iii] of '3'.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (ii) to show signs of completion,
And a turn lower in wave 'i' of (iii).
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave [iii] above 1666.
Todays declines in GOLD have carried to within pips of breaking the recent wave 'a' brown.
Wave 'c' is most likely underway now,
And 1322 should break soon to confirm that view.
The most likely target for wave 'c' to complete remains at or below 1303.
I believe GOLD will be the surprise performer over the coming year,
And of course,
Not a single soul expects it!
Its a perfect setup really.
Tomorrow;
Wave 'c' should continue into support,
At that point it will be time to turn our focus higher in wave [iii] green.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude looks to have completed a possible 'i' 'ii' impulsive rally off the recent lows at 62.04.
The price may be rising in wave 'iii' of (i) as I write.
Wave (i) grey should carry the price back towards the recent highs at 66.50 before completing.
On the 4hr chart,
Momentum is looking positive
with a bullish break on the cards for both RSI and MACD possibly tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave 'iii' pink to carry higher towards 65.00,
A break of 65.36 will confirm that wave [ii] is complete and wave [iii] brown is underway.
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