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Hi all, hope your well and happy!
For the last couple of weeks, I have been speaking about the end of the road for the great run up in Crude prices.
This rally has completed a very large three wave pattern to the upside and is now right on point for a turn lower into a very large wave [5] down.
Today, I came across a news article which has cemented this outlook.
At the End of every large move in prices, the large majority of the public have fully jumped on board the train and drank the coolaid so to say!
They believe that the trend is strong and cannot be derailed.
And they will scour the world for reasons to reinforce their almost religious 'belief'. It is called 'confirmation bias', and we all do it!
Remember bitcoin?
This 'emotional' conviction is evident in the crude market now, and this guy's assertion that the price will hit $300 is just another example of an age old failing in the human psyche,
That is - over commitment at the end of a trend.
Beware, the END IS NIGH!
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.
EUR: Prelim Flash GDP q/q.
GBP: Construction PMI.
JPY: N/A.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $70
Crude prices got dangerously close to key support at 66.37 today.
after a sharp dip below 67.11 which invalidated last nights short term count.
I have altered the wave count to show a possible larger flat wave [iv] brown complete at todays lows.
The price must hold above 66.37 in order for this count to remain valid.
And we must see a rally in wave (i) of [v] tomorrow.
The alternate count is shown circled in red,
This views Mondays high as a possible failed fifth wave.
If that is correct, then this uptrend has finished, and the way is clear for a very long and painful decline in wave [5].
We will see over the next few days which count wins out.
Tomorrow;
look for an impulse wave higher to begin.
Wave (i) and (ii) should create a higher low above the trend channel.
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Membership prices will be changing on Friday the 4th of May!
HERE is the new pricing structure.
Bag yourself a deal, and get in while the current prices last!
Check out the Membership offers page for more details!
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