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You know,
There is no cookie cutter day in trading!
No two days are the same and the future remains a ever undecided.
I have to get up every morning, and forget about yesterday.
It does not matter how good or bad it was - forget about it.
We all start at zero again in the morning.
And yesterdays hero,
will be tomorrows fool.
So,
Lets start at the beginning again tonight!
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Personal Spending m/m, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testifies, ISM Manufacturing PMI.
EUR: n/a
GBP: Manufacturing PMI, Net Lending to Individuals m/m,
JPY: n/a
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
Todays action has not offered any clear path forward
between the current count and the alternate wave count.
For now,
The five wave pattern to the downside is labelled as complete,
the price broke short term support at 1.2205,
This definitely adds weight to the current wave count
Wave (ii) must now rise in three waves off the wave (i) low.
I expect a rise into about 1.2370 for wave (ii).
This is the 50% retracement off todays low.
Tomorrow;
wave 'a' of (ii) should begin with a break above the declining trend channel.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: completing wave (4) blue correction higher.
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
The price dropped out of the contracting price range today,
This invalidated the previous short term wave count.
I have now switched to the alternate count which is best viewed on the 4hr chart.
Wave (iv) brown has developed into a double combination pattern.
Wave 'a' traced out three waves,
Wave 'b' traced out a three waves,
and wave 'c' should also create a three wave pattern as shown.
Once complete,
wave (v) brown is expected to carry the price above 1.4343 to complete.
Tomorrow;
The next likely support lies at 1.3625.
A re-test of 1.3856 will signal that wave (v) has begun.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Doubts over the short term count were confirmed today!
USDJPY fell back towards support and have invalidated the previous short term count.
Wave 'ii' brown is extending into a larger zigzag correction.
The trend channel suggests a break of support at 106.37 will complete wave 'c' of 'ii'.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to reach the lower trendline and then rebound higher in wave 'iii'.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)
The DOW is in an interesting position right now.
There is a chance that the DOW has completed a corrective rally in wave [ii] green
at the recent high of 25799.
I have labelled this high as the alternate wave [ii],
this level should be watched closely.
The decline off that high has traced out a possible five waves down into todays lows.
and the price is very close to breaking initial support at 25155.
The operating wave count shows a double combination correction still underway
With a rise in wave 'c' pink yet to come.
That will complete wave [ii] green under that interpretation.
So;
If we see a failure below 25799,
Along with another impulsive decline,
That will trigger the alternate wave count.
And wave [iii] down will be underway.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
Todays high in GOLD reached 1321.34.
This marks the high of wave '4' pink
Wave '5' pink should now carry the price into support at 1307
to complete wave (c) of [ii].
This correction is almost over and my focus is now turning very bullish again for a possible rally in wave [iii] green.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave '5' pink to complete at or slightly below 1307.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Todays volitle price action has completed a five wave
pattern to the downside labelled wave (i) grey.
the price should now correct higher into about 62.97 cash,
Which is the level of the previous wave 'iv' pink.
A break of support at 60.75 would confirm the bearish outlook.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a possible break of 60.75,
Followed by a three wave rally in wave (ii) grey.
The price is now close to a lower degree bearish Elliott wave signal.
So
The probability of a further large decline in wave (iii) of [iii] is growing.
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