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Evening all.

Optimism optimism optimism optimism is absolutley everywhere!
The world is awash in optimism.

so much so that jpmorgan has announced that it will build a new HQ in NYC.
A 70 story skyscraper to be exact.
Even the guys who are supposed to be in the know ( bankers )
are beaming with optimism for the future.
The skyscraper index comes to mind again.

The UOM released its preliminary consumer sentiment survey data for February.
The index came in at 99.9!
This is up 5 points on January.
this was a blowout report by every measure.
Even though the market tanked in late January.

On top of all that.
Market cap / gross value added is now at an all time high.

And,
The hussman margin adjusted CAPE
is now at an all time high above even the 2000 and 1929 tops.

At this point, the correction needed to carry the market back to long term average valuations,
now stands at about a 66%.
And the projected 12yr return from the S&P500 is at negative 1.25%.

All is rosy in the garden,
dont you think so?

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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:


USD: Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.
GBP: Second Estimate GDP q/q
JPY: n/a.

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EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.

EURUSD has reached into the projected lows at 1.2300.
The price seems to have lost momentum in the short term.
With the RSI and MACD now rising off an extreme oversold position on the short term chart.

The last candle is pushing to 1.2290,
with the invalidation line at 1.2205.
So the decline must now end and wave (iii) must begin in order to stay bullish in the short term.

Tomorrow;
I am again on the lookout for a reversal higher in wave (iii) brown.
1.2205 is the key level in the short term.
watch for a higher low tomorrow to kick off wave (iii).

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GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity

The action today in cable now favors the short term alternate count.
The price has ranged tighter in a possible contracting triangle wave 'iv'
Wave 'c' of that triangle should hit the trendline at 1.3870,
and then turn higher in waves 'd' and 'e'.
The price should remain above wave the wave 'c' low,
until wave 'v' pink is complete.

This wave count is invalidated if the price falls below 1.3763, the wave 'a' low.

Tomorrow;
watch for a rise into wave 'd' and a possible completion of the triangle wave 'iv' pink.

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USDJPY

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00

USDJPY has now completed a possible five wave pattern higher in wave 'i' brown.
Wave 'ii' should now retrace into about 106.85 in a three wave pattern.
And a further impulsive rally above resistance will confirm wave 'iii'.
the price must hold above 105.54 in this scenario.

On the 4hr chart
The price broke above the 50MA again today,
and above 107.29 which is the previous major low.
So the price action is technically bullish in the short term.

Tomorrow;
watch for a correction in a possible wave 'ii' brown, target 106.85.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)

The DOW failed a retest of resistance today with a rally into the high of the session at 25257,
The price then fell 460 points into the low.
on the 4hr chart,
price has now broken the 50MA with a worsening momentum setup.
A sharp decline in a possible wave (i) of three is now very possible.

The recent high at 25263 is now short term resistance,
Wave 'ii' pink should not break from her on.
And this evenings sharp decline adds significant weight to the bearish short term outlook.

tomorrow;
watch for a continuation lower in wave 'iii' of (i).

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GOLD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.

The spike lower in price this evening has either completed wave 'c' of (ii)
Or,
it is pointing to an alternate count for wave [ii] green.
which views wave [ii] as a larger flat correction.
1307 is the critical level between both interpretations.

Both wave counts are still bullish,
indicating a rally in wave [iii] green is coming.

For tomorrow;
we must see a rally begin in wave [iii] green,
price is sitting at a higher low right now,
with a more severe oversold momentum situation.
So the rally is not far behind.
And it could be sharp given the divergence on display

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U.S CRUDE OIL

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70

Crude is pretty flat on the day
with a slight corrective looking rise off the lows mid session.
The short term wave count is hard to discern,
There is a possible leading diagonal wave 'i' off the high,
or a series of 1,2 waves to the downside.

The rise in the short term fits a corrective rally better.
So there is an Elliott wave sell signal now in place off the high.

The momentum setup on the 4hr chart also agrees with the short term bearish wave count.
Bearish divergence off an overbought extreme points to a decline in price.

For tomorrow;
todays high lies at 61.86.
If that lower high holds,
the price should turn lower in wave 'iii' pink.

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