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Hi everyone.
Straight into the markets tonight.
My energy is drained from a cold.
Early to bed for me!
so lets do this.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
EUR: n/a.
GBP: Retail Sales m/m.
JPY: n/a.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
I have switched to the alternate short term count this evening.
The persistance of EURUSD to hang on to gains throughout the week,
and the clear five wave pattern off the lows has forced my hand on this one!
there are two likely targets projected for wave [v] green.
Wave [v] reaches equality with wave [i] green at 1.2613.
This forms the initial target.
The upper target lies at 1.2865,
where wave [v] reaches 161.8% of wave [i] green.
For tomorrow;
five waves off the low suggests wave (i) brown is complete,
wave (ii) should correct into about 1.2350,
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
I have not changed the bearish count in cable,
The recent rise is simply more corrective looking,
And the price action counts better that way.
The rise off Fridays lows at 1.3763 has a 3,3,5 wave structure to it.
And the overall structure in wave 'ii' is viewed as a double combination.
Plus, the alternate count on the short term chart does not project a significant rally above resistance.
So the bearish stance is worth it in the short term.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a turn down into wave 'iii' pink.
If the price falls below 1.3927 that will strengthen the bearish stance.
A break above 1.4276 will trigger the alternate count in cable.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
The declines this week have brought forward the possible end to the relentless correction in USDJPY.
Price is now approaching the lower trendline of the larger wave (c) trend channel.
Sideways action this morning has completed a possible wave 'iv' brown,
With wave 'v' underway as I write.
The price will meet the trend channel at about 105.50 at this rate.
So,
Again we reach a possible vertex point in the price pattern!
It will be time to switch focus to the upside
if we see a bounce from the lower trend channel line.
Tomorrow;
Watch for signs of a reversal in the region of 105.50.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)
After an eventful few weeks,
Stocks have quietly resumed the orderly march higher,
With consistent daily gains to reassure investors.
I don't bet on this lasting too long!
The price is now hovering just below significant resistance at the 61.8% retracement level of the decline in wave [i].
The pattern off the low is possible to count in three waves,
With a running flat wave (b) grey.
Wave (c) should falter at or below the cluster of resistance levels just ahead.
For tomorrow;
If the price hits resistance and turns down in an impulsive fashion,
Then wqe can call wave [ii] complete.
If the week ends on a downturn,
Then expect Monday to continue that theme.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD has hung on to the gains made yesterday in a strong wave 'iii' rally.
The price is holding above resistance / support at 1350,
Which is a good sign of strength.
The price may have completed a three wave correction in wave 'iv' brown at today lows at 1348.88 cash.
This suggests another run up in wave 'v' will complete a five wave pattern in wave (i) blue.
for tomorrow;
1366 marks the next level of resistance.
A break above that level will signal that the larger wave [iii] green is now in force.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude rebounded from a sharp early decline this morning.
and so far the price has failed at the session highs.
The wave count remains valid and still calls for a decline in wave 'v' pink to complete wave (iii).
Only a break of 63.12 will change that view.
For tomorrow;
watch for a decline below 59.72,
this will signal a possible reversal into wave 'v' of (iii).
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