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Hi everyone,
I hope the day treated you well!

Every month I like to dive into the margin debt data from the NYSE.
Today I find that the NYSE are no longer going to report the data!
ignorance is bliss, eh!

So FINRA has taken up the mantle and that data is available HERE

Here are some interesting charts put together by Yardini research,
The first chart is total margin debt plotted against the S&p.
Can you see the beautiful five wave pattern in margin debt off the 2009 lows?

This debt binge has allowed people to drive this market into the extremes we now see.

What is very interesting is the first order data,
that is, the Rate of change of margin debt over the years.


ever since the 2000 highs,
Margin debt has been decelerating from top to top.

This data should scare the living daylights out of the market,

But nobody bothers to look at it!
Once this chart goes negative,
The cycle will accelerate in the opposite direction!
And the market will crash in a spectacular way.

We aint seen nothing yet........

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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:


USD: PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Unemployment Claims,
EUR: n/a.
GBP: n/a.
JPY: n/a.

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EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.

Despite the recent declines and the possibility that the market had topped,
It now looks increasingly likely that the alternate wave count will prove correct.
The price has rallied in five waves off Mondays low
Indicating the short term trend is still up.

The alternate count views Mondays low as wave [iv] green of the larger structure.
And would allow for a new rally in wave [v] green into the 1.2600 region.
This is shown clearly on the 4hr chart.

Wave [v] will reach equality with wave [i] green at about 1.2650.

Tomorrow;
1.2537 is the invalidation point for the short term count.
If we see a three wave decline to a higher low above 1.2205.
That action will favor the alternate wave count in the short term.

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GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity

Cable also spiked higher this evening,
This puts the short term count in danger.
A clear break above 1.4060 will heavily favor the alternate count shown on the 1hr chart.

The current sideways action is still viewed as a correction higher.
It is hard to see an impulse wave off the recent low to support the alternate count,
So I have shown a possible double combination correction in wave 'ii' pink.

This count projects a drop into wave 'iii' below initial support at 1.3625.

Tomorrow;
Watch for indications of a turn down in wave 'iii' in the region of 1.4060.

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USDJPY

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00

This weeks decline is extending into a five wave structure at last!
in doing so it clears up the short term wave count.

It is possible now to see waves 'i' 'ii' and wave 'iii' brown almost complete
off the recent high at 110.47, wave (iv) green.

Wave (v) is now well underway,
The target remains at about 104.30 to complete wave (v) green
At that point I will switch focus again to the upside
as this long correction has all but run its course.
You can see momentum is already diverging higher on the daily chart.

Tomorrow;
Wave 'iii' brown is closing out this evening,
wave 'iv' brown should complete below 108.45.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)

Todays action has now carried the price clear of the declining trend line.
And has shifted the price structure in favor of the alternate wave count.
I have updated the short term chart to reflect the change.

The most likely target for wave [ii] green lies at 25364,
this is the 61.8% retracement level of the decline in wave [i] green.

A failure before resistance at 25303 will be very bearish in the short term.
that will signal a decline in wave [iii] green has already begun.

For tomorrow;
watch for a continuation higher into resistance to complete wave (c) grey.

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GOLD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.

GOLD shot back into life today in a possible wave 'iii' pink to the upside.
This mornings initial selloff completed wave 'ii' pink,
The price then broke initial resistance at 1350, the previous wave (a) low.

The price structure is near to confirming a large rally in wave [iii] green dead ahead.

1336.47 marks the high of wave 'i' pink,
This level should hold as the rally continues into wave 'iv' and 'v'.

Tomorrow;
A break of 1366 will confirm wave [iii] has begun.
1336.47 should hold.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70

Crude may have completed a three wave rally in wave 'iv' pink at the highs of the session.
The correction seems to be an expanded flat,
Wave 'c' has reached above the previous wave 'a' which meets the minimum criteria.

The price should now turn down again in wave 'v' pink.
wave 'v' should cause a clear break of support at 59.02 to complete wave (iii) grey.

Tomorrow;
watch for a reversal in wave 'v' pink below support.
63.12 is the low of wave 'i' pink,
Price must remain below that level to remain bearish in the short term.

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