[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Good evening guy's and gals!
Its monday again, this is the official beginning of the new year for so many of us.
So,
its the day we all break our new years resolutions....
And today I wanted to share a little chart on Bitcoin which I found interesting this evening.
I was looking at the chart earlier and I noticed a pattern which should raise your eyebrows.
Five waves down,
followed by three waves up.
This could be a very ominous signal for the much renowned crypto pyramid scheme!
It is still possible that this will develop into a three wave correction.
But I have my doubts on that given the hysteria which surrounds the whole thing.
The Elliott wave pattern may now be pointing solidly downwards,
And if this develops into the crash I expect,
Then I think the first major support is at about $2000.
But the real target should be well below $200 I think.
Where the base was built for this outrageous rally.
The reckoning is now upon us![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Import Prices m/m, Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m, Goods Trade Balance.
JPY: N/A.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD has declined as expected,
This should be a corrective decline in a possible wave (iv) brown.
And wave 'v' is now set to take the price up above key resistance again at 1.2121.
That should complete wave [iii] green.
And the target for wave [v] green, and the end of this correction,
is now set at 1.2370 where wave [v] reaches the 161.8% extension of wave [i].
For tomorrow;
watch for a reversal higher to begin wave (v) brown.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
I have switched to the alternate wave count in cable today.
The sideways move over the last few sessions suggests a correction in a 'b' wave,
rather than wave 'iv', as I had previously thought.
The price should decline in wave 'c' of 'b' from here.
and price will meet the trendline again at about 1.3460 to complete wave 'b' pink.
A break of 1.3612 will suggest that wave 'c' is underway again.
For tomorrow;
watch for a break of immediate support at 1.3493 to confirm this new count.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
I have altered the internal labeling of wave 'i' brown this evening,
Todays sideways action lends itself to a possible expanded flat correction in wave '4' pink.
Wave '5' pink should carry the price higher into resistance at 113.75 to complete the larger wave 'i' brown.
Further declines tomorrow will trigger the alternate count circled in red.
which views wave 'i' brown as complete and wave 'ii' already underway.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a a break of 113.38 in wave '5' pink.
And wave 'ii' brown to then get underway.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
Well, after todays impressive rally I am left with only one question.
Have we now finally reached the end of this bull market?
We are so close to a major turning point that I can feel it in the air!
The price structure has all but completed five waves, at seven degrees of trend in my counting.
Todays rally did not meet the upside target the target suggested at 25354 just yet.
The high of the session was 25311 in the cash market so far,
The price has met the upper trendline on the short term chart.
And we have a throw-over in place above the red trend channel.
The initial turn down off the high must cross back into this trend channel again to break the uptrend.
With the first support level at the previous fourth wave of 24736.
A break of that level will increase the odds of a significant high in place.
For tomorrow;
watch 25354, for wave '5' blue to reach equality with wave '1' blue.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD has corrected off the 1325 high in a possible second wave,
with further higher lows over the last few sessions,
it seems very likely that the price should now begin a rally in wave '3' of 'v'
The price must remain above 1306.11 in order for this count to remain valid.
The alternate view allows for a possible contracting triangle wave 'iv' brown.
This count does not allow for any price decline from here.
For tomorrow;
watch for a break of 1325 in wave '3' pink.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude has risen in three waves off Fridays lows.
This indicates a larger correction in wave (iv) grey is now underway.
The parallel trend channel suggests a decline into previous support above 60.00 to complete.
Any further break above 62.21 will rule this out,
as wave (v) grey will be underway at that point.
The price is now moving in a series of closing fourth and fifth waves.
So progress to the upside is slowing down now.
The initial target still stands at 63.00,
but the upper target at $70 is less likely now unless things change drastically from here.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a decline in wave 'c' pink,
initial target at 60.70.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]