[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Howdy!
Friday is here and we can now relax,
Well I cant,
I have the kids to myself for the weekend!
So, at least some of us can now relax!
I read a piece on marketwatch earlier today,
It spoke about raising 2018 targets for the S&P500.
The headline read, "stocks are looking kind of cheap"
My answer,
Are you for real?
I will not revisit my list of valuation metrics again which all point to hyper-valued market conditions right now,
apart from mentioning that current valuations
now sit at a higher multiples than both the 2000 .com bubble high,
and the 1929 bubble high.
So we are in good company here!
I have a feeling that the outcome of this current bubble will more resemble the 1929 decline rather than the 2000 decline.
And the opportunity which will flow our way after the crash will be just as big as the opportunity presented in 1932!
So patience will be rewarded folks,
believe the numbers if you dont believe me.
So lets wrap up this weeks charts and prepare for a return to reality next week.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: FOMC Member Speaks.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: Halifax HPI m/m.
JPY: N/A.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
I have shown another interpretation of the last couple of days price action on the short term chart.
It is possible that wave (iii) brown completed at Thursdays high,
and the decline off that high is wave 'a' of (iv).
In this case we should expect the sideways action to continue into the middle of next week.
A three wave decline off the high should retrace to support at about 1.1960.
Wave (v) brown will carry the price higher towards the upper trendline at about 1.2200.
For next week;
Watch for a corrective phase to get underway in wave (iv) brown.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
The short term action in cable is hinting at the alternate wave count after todays flat trade.
Both wave counts shown call for a rally into the upper trendline to complete the larger structure wave (c) brown.
The difference being,
The alternate count will allow for a larger three wave decline in wave 'b'
before wave 'c' carries the price to the target in the region of 1.3800.
On Monday;
watch for a possible break of short term support at 1.3493,
This would trigger the alternate wave count.
A break above 1.3612 will confirm the current wave count.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
The price action in USDJPY is suggesting a rise in wave 'i' brown is underway.
Waves '1' through '4' pink are complete,
With wave '5' pink now subdividing and extending higher.
Resistance at 113.74 is now the target high for a completed wave 'i' rally.
A break of that level would really add weight to the bullish interpretation.
and set the price up for a serious rally in wave 'iii' of (iii).
On Monday;
Watch for a rally into resistance at 113.74 and a three wave decline in wave 'ii' brown.
At that point a bullish Elliott wave signal will be in place.
A low risk opportunity should present itself next week.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The upper target for wave '5' blue lies at 23350,
This is where wave '5' blue will reach equality with wave '1' blue.
The price action in the short term is very overextended,
So next week should bring a decline at least in the short term.
I have now labeled seven separate five wave structures in succession in this bullmarket off the 2009 low!
seven degrees of trend makes for one hell of a rally,
And also one hell of a decline to come.
This market has now rallied 10,000 points in 2 years.
lets put that into perspective,
It took 68 years from the 1932 low until the 2000 high for the DOW jones to break 10000.
It has taken 2 years almost to the day,
From the January 2016 wave (4) low,
until todays highs for the DOW to add on the same 10000 points,
And certain commentators are calling this market cheap!
For next week;
Watch the Fibonacci target set at 25350.
Once hit I will look for the beginning of at least a short term decline.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
The short term chart shows a possible extension underway in wave 'v' brown.
The short term target for the wave 'v' high lies at about 1350.
Where the price will meet the upper trend channel line again.
A break of the wave '1' pink high at 1325.75 will confirm this short term count.
The previous wave 'iv' low at 1306 must hold for this wave count to remain valid.
For next week;
Wave 'v' brown will complete the larger wave (iii) blue.
And at that point we should expect a short correction in wave (iv) blue.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude extended the correction within wave '4' black today.
The price structure has completed a larger three wave pattern off the wave '3' high.
Wave '5' black should carry the price into the upper trendline again at about 63.00 to complete the larger wave (iii) grey.
A break above 62.21 will confirm wave '5' black is underway.
If the price continues to slide into support at 60.10,
Then the alternate count, shown circled in red, will take precedence.
For next week;
The price is now stuck within a series of fourth and fifth waves,
so the price action is likely to range for a week or so while wave (iii) and (iv) grey complete.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]That is it for me, the weekend video will be published shortly.
until next week.
All the best everyone.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]