[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Good evening to you all,
and welcome to the beginning of a new year.
Will this one be the same as the old one?.... I don't think so.
We have the usual punditry across the press over the last few days,
And as far as the financial media is concerned, all is rosy in the garden,
And,
Should remain so for the coming year.
Of course,
Humans are great at projecting the past into the future.
Lets have a quick recap for stocks shall we,
2017 saw a 24% rise in the DOW.
The VIX registered nine of its 10 lowest levels last year.
71 record highs during the year for the Dow alone.
the Dow rose nine months in a row, the longest streak since 1959.
the records go on and on!
And still the majority of people are predicting a rally as far as the eye can see.
On the other hand of the equation.
I see this year as the year the market turns at a scale never before seen.
A year which will go down in history for its losses, not gains!
I think we will finally get our just deserts for the institutionalised profligacy we fostered since 2008.
I for one am preparing for the worst, not the best.
So lets get started on this year to remember![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Meeting Minutes.
EUR: Spanish Unemployment Change.
GBP: Construction PMI.
JPY: N/A[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
EURUSD continued towards key resistance at 1.2092 today.
A break of that level will invalidate the alternate count,
and confirm the current outlook for a new top at about 1.2400 as shown on the 4hr chart.
In the short term chart,
Todays rise completes a possible wave 'iii' of (iii).
the price is now due a small correction in wave 'iv' pink before rallying in wave 'v' pink to the Fibonacci target at 1.2118.
For tomorrow;
watch for a correction in wave 'iv' pink to get underway.
The price should remain above the high of wave 'i' pink at 1.1901.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable is a little further along its corrective rise to complete the larger wave (4) blue.
Key resistance broke at 1.3550 today, which confirms the current wave count.
A five wave rise in pink labels will complete wave (c) brown,
which will likely complete the overall structure.
For now the target high for wave (c) is set 1.3842,
where wave (c) reaches equality with wave (a) brown.
For tomorrow;
wave 'iii' pink should complete in the region of 1.3628,
given by the Fibonacci extension.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Todays continued slide in USDJPY has forced a new interpretation of the current short term pattern.
I have now labelled the decline as a three wave flat correction in wave (ii) green.
The price has not yet broken support at 112.02,
That is expected as wave '5' of 'c' completes, with an initial target at 111.71.
At that point I will look for another bullish Elliott wave signal to complete before turning bullish in wave (iii) again.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a break of support at 111.02
And the completion of wave 'c' brown at the lower trendline.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topping in wave (5)
The DOW has now failed three times at resistance at 24875.
The price reached a high of 24862 today and sold off in a pretty impulsive looking fashion off that high.
It is possible that the recent high at 24868 on the 29th was a failed fifth wave to complete the larger structure.
But, I will refrain from labeling the decline as the beginning of the bear-market just yet,
Although the momentum setup across all three timeframes calls for a significant decline to begin presently.
The price is now sitting below the larger trendchannel resistance,
Which offers a larger potential to resist a rally.
For now I will remain cautious and on th lookout for a bearish elliott wave signal.
Lets see if today's decline will develop into a larger five wave structure.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
I have altered the short term count today
to allow for the continued rise in a possible wave (iii) blue.
the price has shown great strength over the last few weeks which does suggest that the larger bullish potential is now confirmed.
Resistance at 1306 was broken today,
This was the high of the previous wave (b) blue on the 4hr chart.
This high has held since late October.
It is now likely the price is rising in wave [iii] green and will carry higher into the 1480 region before completion.
Given the strength of the rise,
I am considering switching to the alternate count shown on the 4hr chart.
This shows the price moving at one higher degree than the current count.
And is just as bullish, I will hold off for the moment on that change.
For tomorrow;
Watch for wave 'iii' to complete and wave 'iv' brown to begin.
The target for wave 'v' brown and wave (iii) blue lies at at 1330.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude oil has possibly topped out in wave 'iii' pink today.
The price should consolidate in wave 'iv' pink into the area of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree at 59.31.
This will carry the price back to the lower trendlne again
and should setup the price for a run up in wave 'v' of (iii).
The price should now continue to grind higher in a series of 4th and 5th waves over the next few weeks to the minimum target at 63.00.
For tomorrow;
Watch for a short decline into the lower trendline in wave 'iv' pink.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]