There is not one person living today that has seen a period of overvaluation such as the one we are living through right now.
And there are few people still alive who witnessed a crash similar to the one we are about to experience.
The market hit such an extreme level last week
that it brought the long term valuation metrics I follow
To a level higher than the property bubble highs of 2007,
the DOTCOM bubble highs of 1999,
the cocaine highs of 1987,
the space age highs of 1966,
and the roaring 20's highs of 1929.
This bubble that we are living through
is the most over-valued extreme in history - bar none!
And the market is now trading at 3X the long run historical average for those valuation metrics.
If that wasn't bad enough,
People and corporations have never been so leveraged in history.
As a society,
we are in very bad shape to weather the depression.
Also on this ocassion,
there will not be large scale government intervention to save failing banks,
or insurance companies,
and whoever else is laid low in the coming depression and the incredible web of counter party risk that exists right now.
The political will does not exist anymore.
politicians have an aversion to sticking their necks out
when the public has their knives sharp and ready.
This bubble is so large,
And the crash will be so devastating,
That my major worry over the 10 years is not the coming depression,
It is the coming war after the coming depression!
there are going to be a whole lot of angry people knocking around,
Vile, reprehensible political movements will grow on the back of those bad actors,
And they will demand revenge through blood.
This is the trend across human history
and I dont expect any different this time around.
So while the world is enjoying the dying moments of this epic orgy of speculation,
You should take this the time to ready yourself for the tumult that is upon us,
and after that,
the opportunity that is to come.
Make sure you are still solvent when valuations are in the exact opposite position as they are now.
When stocks like AMZN stock will sell for a p/e of 5,
rather than the insane 324 X its sits at today.
The time is coming.