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Good evening to one and all!
I will have the video uploaded tonight after this update goes live.
( and after I get a certain 6 year old to bed! )
The wave counts are lining up quite nicely at the moment.
Apart from a hiccup in USDJPY today.
The alternate count was triggered by that decline.
So lets dive in and go through it all.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
EUR: Italian Parliamentary Election.
GBP: Services PMI.
JPY: n/a.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
The price has risen sharply off Thursdays low so far.
And is now approaching the previous fourth wave high at one lesser degree.
This is labelled wave 'a' of (ii)
Wave 'b' should follow early on Monday,
And wave 'c' should hit the 50% retracement level,
just above current levels at 1.2356.
when wave (ii) completes,
the price structure will be in a prime area for a reversal in a possible wave (iii) down.
For Monday;
I want to see a reversal in wave 'b' followed by wave 'c'.
A break of 1.2155 will signal that wave (iii) has begun.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: completing wave (4) blue correction higher.
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Cable was dead in the water today,
Almost like nobody went to work in London city!
The flat price action over the last few days
indicates a correction higher at a small degree.
Possible an internal 4th wave within wave 'c' grey.
I expect to see a dip below support on Monday to complete wave 'c' pink
Remember;
this is a terminal move in GBPUSD,
Wave (v) will complete a very large 2yr long corrective process in wave (4) blue.
Monday;
Watch for wave 'c' of (iv) to complete below 1.3712
wave (v) brown should begin with an impulsive rally above 1.3855.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY is the trouble maker of the bunch these days!
I was expecting this pair to lead the way for a USD reversal.
But,
It looks likely that the original target at 104.30 will be hit before completing a three wave pattern in wave '2',
This is best viewed on the daily chart.
The daily chart is showing a bullish divergence in RSI for the last few weeks.
This will show up as a rally sooner rather than later as wave [c] of '2' reaches the trend channel support.
For Monday;
Watch for this corrective decline to complete at 4 degrees of trend!
The price will meet the lower trend channel line at about 104.30.
At that point it will be time again to look for a reversal.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)
Stocks dipped to a low of 24221.9 cash today.
This decline may only have completed wave 'iii' of (i).
With wave 'iv' pink underway off the low.
If the price fails to break above the declining trend channel on Monday,
Then we can expect a further decline in wave 'v' pink.
If the current wave count is correct on the short term chart.
Then next week is lining up to be a critical week in the stock market.
A complete (i) (ii) pattern to the downside will setup the price for a serious decline in wave (iii) of [iii].
The price could very easily fall below 20000 in a matter of weeks in a third wave acceleration.
So;
Next week,
I will be watching for a correction into 25000 in wave (ii) grey.
At that point we will have a complete Elliott wave signal off the wave [ii] high.
Things should get serious then!
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave (3) above 1666.
GOLD gave us a positive signal today with a $20 bounce in a possible wave '1' pink.
I am looking for a five wave pattern higher in wave 'i' brown,
And a break of 1340, the previous wave 'b' brown.
This action will indicate that the rally in wave [iii] is finally beginning.
Monday,
The initial signs are good but it is still very early in the development of wave [iii],
Next week will be a test of the bullish short term count,
watch for five waves up in wave 'i' brown.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Crude may be nearing completion of wave (ii) grey at the close of trading tonight.
there is a clear three wave pattern in the price off the wave (ii) low
Wave (ii) is still likely to reach 62.00 early on Monday,
This will complete an expanded flat correction and hit a key Fib level.
Much like stocks.
Crude is now completing two degrees of bearish impulse waves.
With a possible decline in wave (iii) of [iii] to begin next week.
That decline in wave [iii] could carry the price into the mid $40's.
So the potential is high here.
Monday:
Look for wave (ii) to complete at about $62.10
The price should then turn lower to kick off wave (iii).
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Thats it for me.
Wishing you all a good weekend,
Until Monday
Gods speed!
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