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Hello everyone,
Welcome to the weekend.
Friday comes around incredibly quickly when your my age!
I recorded the weekend video earlier this evening,
Complete with screaming kids in the background,
so that should keep it interesting!
The late selling in Crude altered the short term count slightly from the video, so watch out for that.
The market is firmly stuck in correction mode from stocks through to FX.
So we are doing the hard work of predicting the almost unpredictable!
That is, forecasting when these corrections end.
But,
There is one certainty in markets - corrections always end.
We should always be ready for the trend move to come,
and not be shocked when it finally does.
This is especially true in stocks at the moment.
So lets get down to business.
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UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: N/A.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: Halifax HPI m/m.
JPY: N/A.
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EURUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: long term bearish
Wave Structure: Topping in wave [B] black.
Long term wave count: lower in wave [C] black.
There is a creeping suspicion in me these days, that EURUSD has actually topped out.
I have now switched the alternate wave count to reflect this possibility.
The three wave rise to a lower high at 1.2476,is the biggest indicator to that effect.
A further three wave recovery off nearby lows
will add further weight to that theory.
Next week;
watch for a break of support at 1.2150 on Monday,
what happens immediately after that will guide us to the correct count.
Next week could be pivotal for the USD in general.
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GBPUSD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: completing wave (4) blue correction higher.
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
The short term pattern in GBPUSD is particularly tricky right now.
I am experimenting with a possible developing five wave pattern to the downside off the recent highs.
This is labelled wave 'i' pink,
The sideways grind this week is still labelled wave 'ii' pink.
Although the pattern itself is complex in the extreme.
In general,
I am looking for a complete wave (i) down to signal a turn in this market.
A break of 1.3719 on the short term chart will be a heavy signal that the turn is in.
Next week;
Watch for a possible decline in wave 'iii' pink early next week.
1.3710 is key support at the moment.
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USDJPY
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
USDJPY is further along towards a bullish confirmation for the USD.
The short term pattern show a possible developing five wave pattern in wave (i) green.
Todays sideways correction may be wave '4' of 'iii' as shown.
The 4hr chart continues to look bullish.
With momentum looking positive,
And an bullish upside cross of the 200MA line.
So;
The wave pattern is lining up nicely with both momentum and technical indicators.
Next week;
If we see an early rally on Monday,
With a break of resistance at 107.90,
That should complete wave 'iii' brown.
initial support at 105.60 must hold from here.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process completing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: topped in wave (5)
Stocks are taking another dive this evening as we move into the close.
The market is now down 850 points off Thursdays high.
It is strange to think that an 850 point decline is normal range these days!
From an elliott perspective,
This may well be the next degree impulse wave to the downside as we have been expecting.
So far the decline off 24632 is in three waves,
We need to see a clear five wave pattern to complete wave 'i' pink.
If the price corrects in three waves into wave 'ii' early next week.
Then this market will be primed for serious declines to come in wave (iii) down.
Next week;
Watch for a break of key support in wave 'i' pink early next week.
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GOLD
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long to a new all time high above 1827.
Wave Structure: Impulse structure to a new high.
Long term wave count: wave [iii] above 1666.
GOLD has corrected in a possible expanded flat wave '2' pink today.
The larger pattern continues to suggest a further decline into 1300,
to fill the trend channel and complete the correction in wave [ii] green.
Wave '3' down should break 1322 early on Monday,
And the correction should be complete by midweek ot the latest.
So from here on in I am prepared for the next phase in this GOLD bull market.
Monday;
1322 is the level to watch,
A quick break should occur in wave '3' followed by a decent into the trend channel.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: topping in a large correction wave [4].
Wave Structure: Double combination higher in wave [4] red.
Long term wave count: wave [4] target $63 - $70
Well,
Heaving selling this evening carried the price down below initial support at 62.06.
That has ruled out the short term bullish count from last nights update.
And,
Also the weekend video update!
This evenings break of support has brought to light another possibility,
A possible triangle wave (b)
Wave (c) is now well underway and should complete above 60.02.
A break of that level will trigger the alternate wave count.
And Crude will then be on track for a big slide.
But first I must rule out all possibilities for the bullish count.
Monday;
Watch for the completion of wave (c) of [ii] above 60.02.
I will look for another impulse wave higher once that is done.
Next week could also prove pivotal for crude!
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That is it for the week,
God's speed to one and all!
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