USDJPY nears wave (iii) target - How Elliott wave analysis saw it coming!

USDJPY

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m. 

USDJPY is approaching the end of a the structure in wave (iii) green as I write.
The target was set at 113.00 and the price is hitting the high of the day right now at 112.63.
There is always a chance that wave 'v' brown could extend higher, we will see.

On the 19th of April I wrote that USDJPY was nearing a very significant low

The price stood at 1.0880, and I was firmly bullish on the Dollar.
Tonight the price stands 400 points higher and nearing the end of the first phase of this new bull run.
Another example of the value of Elliott wave analysis in predicting future market action.

The larger wave count calls for this rally to continue into the future and much higher
With long term targets in the region of 145.00.

For now I am watching for the completion of wave (iii) green and the beginning of wave (iv).
Watch for the price action at the 113.00 level.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m.

The DOW reached a low today of 20872 and has since rallied about 100 points in an impulsive fashion.
This price action suggests wave 'iv' pink is complete and wave 'v' has begun.

The minimum target for wave 'v' to complete is at 21070,
The invalidation line for the current short term count lies at the all time high of 21172.
So the price must not cross above that level.
A break of that high does not negate the larger bearish view for the stock market though.
It merely postpones the inevitable for a short while.

For tomorrow watch the 21070 level for signs of a reversal.

GOLD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m.

GOLD continued lower today dropping below the 50% retracement level of wave (i) blue,
the price now sits at the support of the previous 4th wave low of 1239.
The 61.8% retracement of wave (i) blue lies at 1233.33
And the price is at the lower trend channel line at two degrees.
Momentum is indicating severely oversold conditions at the moment.
So by all available evidence the price has reached a bottom and will turn higher soon.

The invalidation level for the bullish count lies at 1194, so we are pretty safe for the moment.
Again, I am on the lookout for the creation of a higher low off nearby lows.