EURUSD pushing the absolute limits!
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m. USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims.
Good evening to every single one of you!
It has been one heck of a week so far.
I have been astounded by how volatile the both EURUSD and Cable have been these last few days.
Todays action brought with it another invalidation line break and another kick in the ass for me!
EURUSD is pushing the absolute limits here in terms of its ability to continue higher.
I dont think it can go much further given the overall wave structure.
Let me explain myself.
Start on the daily chart.
The new wave count shows wave [B] as a running flat correction higher which completed at 1.1616.
The decline from that point is labelled as wave (1) red, which traced out a five wave impulsive decline.
Since the low at 1.0339, we have been suffering through this long and drawn out correction higher.
The very form of the rise indicates a correction.
It best counts as an A,B,C rally in a 3,3,5 wave structure.
wave 'C' blue has been the culprit for all of these wave count invalidations of late.
And this wave is extended in the extreme.
The 4hr chart shows an almost complete five waves in wave 'C' blue.
With an upside target of 1.1418 to complete.
The hourly chart clears up the recent action into the best fit wave count at the moment.
The price is currently moving in wave [v] green.
And this structure is complete up to wave (iv) brown,
with one last pop in wave (v) left to complete.
SO now this structure sits at an extended extreme which could break any moment.
The price is whipsawing around like nobodies business!
This is a sign of the nervous end of a trend.
For the next few days I will be watching the the closing of this structure in wave (V) brown.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Final GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims.
The rally in the Dow was unexpected today.
So far I think the best way to view this rise is as part of a flat correction in wave (ii) grey.
This is the interpretation I have shown on the short term chart.
A break of the high at 21539, will invalidate the immediatley bearish short term wave count,
It will not change a single thing for the future of this market,
And consequently the economy as a whole.
We are in for a long term bear market in stocks and a long term recession in the world economy.
Of course sitting at an all time high in stock, it is hard for everyone to even contemplate a bear market,
let alone a protracted recession,
Mark my words, the next few years are not looking bright at all.
For the next few days, I want to see 21539 hold and the market to decline in an impulseive fashion again.
If we see the formation of another lower high,
It will be a signal of the price readying to decline once more.