GOLD wave count change, more bullish than ever!
My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Unemployment Change. USD: N/A.
Good evening to all
And to all my U.S friends, Happy independence day!
I hope you guy's have a great holiday.
First things first;
The U.S market will be shut tomorrow, so I will not be posting tomorrow evening.
Todays action hit invalidation levels in in both the DOW and GOLD,
This price action has narrowed the alternatives down to a point where the future action is becoming pretty clear.
More on that later.
Down to business.
EURUSD continued down today off fridays high as expected.
I have labelled the decline as a possible wave 'iii' pink.
If this is correct, then the top is in for this market at 1.1445.
To complete a clear five wave pattern to the downside we need another leg down as shown on the chart.
A break of 1.1289 would kill the upside momentum,
Todays decline brought a momentum sell signal on the 4HR chart with a slight downside centreline cross.
on the 4hr chart, key support lies at 1.1119.
So for the next few days,
Another push lower into support at 1.1289 will shift the momentum,
And a three wave recovery will complete an Elliott wave signal in waves (i) and (ii) brown.
from that point The price could decline quickly.
My Bias: short below parity in wave (5).
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: Construction PMI. USD: N/A.
Cable dropped in a possible impulse form today.
This price action has saved the immediately bearish wave count for the moment.
The alternate wave count allows for another run up to the 1.3200 level to complete that wave structure.
But for now I will stick with the operating wave count.
We need to see five waves down in wave 'i' pink for the current wave count to remain valid.
A break of 1.2818 will add weight to this outlook.
As with EURUSD,
The 4hr RSI is on the verge of a sell signal today with a downside cross of the centreline.
Both MACD and RSI are declining fast from very large extreme readings.
watch 1.2818 for a break over the coming days,
I await another bearish Elliott wave signal.
My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: N/A.
The wave count in USDJPY has performed exceptionally well latley.
Since calling the low on the 14th of last month
The price is now up 460 points!
And There is a lot more to come if the larger wave count is correct.
As suggested on Friday,
The price dropped in wave '2' pink in the early trade,
And since the low today, the price rallied strongly in a possible wave '3' pink.
The price is likely to tag the upper trendline of that trend channel again to complete wave 'iii' brown
This market is leading the way for the changing fortunes of the U.S Dollar.
The other two will follow suit soon enough.
For the next few sessions watch for a correction in wave '4' pink and a break of 114.15 to bring wave 'iii' to a close.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: N/A.
Todays pump and dump in stocks has again invalidated the short term bearish count shown on Friday.
I have altered the wave count to account for this new all time high.
The market has triggered the alternate wave count which views the recent selloff as wave (iv) grey.
The price is now moving within wave (v) grey.
Each time the price action triggers the alternate wave count,
We get one step closer to realising the larger picture,
One point should not be forgotten here.
The market is closing out a price structure at a very large degree right now,
So when it does turn down, as it is bound to do!
It is going to turn down for a very long time.
This is the reason why I remain vigilant for a turn each and every day.
The magnitude of the decline to come dictates a very conservative approach.
So for the rest of this week,
I will be looking for the completion of wave (v) grey.
Fibonacci analysis puts the top of wave (v) grey between,
21625 - the 162% extension of wave (i) grey.
21890 - Where wave (v) grey will reach equality with wave (i) grey.
Both scenarios lead to the same conclusion,
The bear market is one step closer.
My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: N/A.
I have switched to the alternate wave count in GOLD today's following the continued selloff.
If you look at the 4hr chart.
I had been tracking a decline off the recent highs at 1296
as a correction at a lower degree within wave [iii] green.
That decline is now viewed as wave (c) blue of a larger wave [ii] green.
Wave [ii] green is viewed as a flat correction,
with a 3,3,5 wave structure.
The recent confusion has been caused by a running flat correction in wave 'iv' brown.
This complex structure threw off the larger wave count over the last few weeks.
This confusion has now been resolved,
And the new wave count may result in an even bigger rally in GOLD than I had anticipated before.
The initial target for wave [iii] green is now at 1495
Where wave [iii] would reach 162% of wave [i] green.
The sentiment in GOLD is now reaching levels not seen since the end of 2016,
At which point the price rallied $170 into the recent highs.
At points of extreme sentiment, everyone who was going to sell,
has already done so.
So the market has reached an extreme oversold level in momentum readings,
An extreme in sentiment,
And a point of inflection in the wave count.
This market is ready to recoil back into a rally any day now.
So from here watch for support at 1213, to stop the declines,
The lower support should serve as a lower limit in wave (c) blue.
From there we should see an impulsive rally form.
Happy independence day America!
See you all on Wednesday.