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Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis-05-15-17 market tops are a process! Alternate wave count for the DOW.

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EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Flash GDP q/q, German ZEW Economic Sentiment. USD: Building Permits, Housing Start, Capacity Utilization Rate.

Hello everyone, Happy monday!

EURUSD put in a strong day today, against the expected action called for by the previous wave count.
I have shown a possible larger flat correction in wave 'ii' pink as the next likely wave count.

The impulsive look to the action over the last few sessions is fits with an 'a' wave interpretation.
But there is the sneaking possibility that we will see another push above 1.1021 to complete a larger five wave advance in wave (c) brown.

If the price does not drop sharply tomorrow, the alternative wave count shown circled in red is more likely.
The short term action is up for grabs at the moment
But the larger picture remains the same, wave '2' blue will be complete soon,
And the market is due for serious declines.
Watch the invalidation line at 1.1021 tomorrow for a break.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: CPI y/y. USD: Building Permits, Housing Start, Capacity Utilization Rate.

Cable may have completed waves 'i' and 'ii' pink to the upside at todays lows of 1.2880.
The wave count is now calling for a rally in wave 'iii' pink.
The upper target for this rally to complete is in the region of 1.3050 or so.
A break of the low at 1.2843, will negate this bullish wave count for now.

The 4hr technicals are looking very shaky right now,
with the momentum all but dissipated for this rally
and that upper trend line is holding down prices.

I have shown an alternate interpretation on the 4hr chart circled in red.
This views wave B red as a contracting triangle, if that alternate works out,
price will rally slightly higher to complete the pattern,
But as with EURUSD,
We are witnessing the last gasps of a corrective rally, nothing more.
The next major pase is to the downside.
For now, 1.2843 is the price to watch.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

USDJPY

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Building Permits, Housing Start, Capacity Utilization Rate.

USDJPY rose today, but so far this rise looks corrective.
I have shown the price within a trend channel,
If wave 'v' brown is to develop from here, then this price channel should break to the upside soon.

The alternate wave count views wave [i] grey as complete, and wave [ii] grey as underway.
The wave 'i' high at 112.95 is critical to the short term wave count right now.

If this level is broken then the alternate wave count is triggered,
Wave [ii] grey will be underway, with a likely target at the previous fourth wave low of 112.07.
The next lower support lies at 111.05.
A break of 114.36 will reconfirm the current operating wave count.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Building Permits, Housing Start, Capacity Utilization Rate.

I have bitten the bullet today with the DOW!
After watching this market for weeks now and expecting the next leg down in a bearish setup,
which did not materialise so far.
I is time to contemplate the short term alternative as the correct interpretation.

I have altered both the 30min and the 4hr chart to show a final rally to the top in wave (v) of [v], now underway.
This interpretation simply fits the short term action better.
As I have said before, the longer term fate for the stock market is set,
The coming bear market is looming large at the moment.
The new wave count simply proposes one last high before the second half of this market cycle begins.

On the 4hr chart I have shown two possible targets for wave [v] green to complete.
The first: 21390, where wave [v] green reaches the 261.8% extension of wave [i] green.
The second: 21874, where wave [v] green reaches equality with wave [i] green.

SO for now we may have to watch another historic top develop
Which of course will send the bulls wild with excitement,
It should be interesting to see the behavior that comes along with it![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Building Permits, Housing Start, Capacity Utilization Rate.

GOLD edged higher again today,
But again in a corrective looking fashion.
The price has not managed to break out of the rising trend channel yet,
If wave '3' pink arrives, it will use that channel as support rather than resistance.

The technicals are looking good, and in general mt stance on GOLD is very bullish at the moment.
But;
The elliott wave signal that I have been waiting for off the low has not appeared yet.
The previous wave '4' pink was breached today slightly,
but, resistance at 1239 still stands as the first hurdle for this market to turn around.
1213 is still the critical level at the moment, this market is slowly shifting focus and the turn is coming.
lets see what tomorrow brings.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]