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Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis-05-09-17 USDJPY up 550 pips since the calling the low, what now?

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EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: ECB President Draghi Speaks. USD: Import Prices m/m, Mortgage Delinquencies, Crude Oil Inventories.

Bon soir, tout le monde.

EURUSD carried on downwards today as expected in a possible wave '3' green.
The price action is quite overlapping so far,
So there will need to be a clear drop soon in order to trace out a proper five wave structure in wave 'i' pink.
So far so good for the bearish wave count though,
the price has now dropped 160 pips since calling the high at 1.1020.
And the price has dropped back into the previous support at wave 'iv' pink.

For tomorrow wave '3' should clear up, and wave 'iv' should begin.
Support at 1.0850 should give way as wave 'i' pink completes.
1.0772 remains as critical support, if that level is broken and the price fills the previous gap,
Then we are in business for a clear trend change.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Import Prices m/m, Mortgage Delinquencies, Crude Oil Inventories.

It is unclear what pattern is emerging in cable after todays trade.
The Price has dropped off the high in three waves, and quite overlapping in form.
So this price action has the hall marks of a corrective structure rather than the beginning of the new down trend.

In saying that I have labelled the rally as complete, in a failed fifth wave at wave '5' grey.
So it all hangs in the balance at the moment.
Todays low is at 1.2902, if the price falls through that level again and challenges 1.2830,
At that point the momentum will have swung to the downside.
The critical support lies at 1.2774.
A break of that level will almost certainly mean the corrective rally in wave (4) is over.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

USDJPY

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Import Prices m/m, Mortgage Delinquencies, Crude Oil Inventories.

The continued rally in USDJPY today, has triggered the alternate wave count shown over the last few days.
That is wave (iv) green completed in three waves as a simple zigzag form at 112.08.
since calling the low in USDJPY almost three weeks ago, the price has now rallied 550 points into todays high!

Right now, wave (v) looks incomplete yet.
I have labelled wave 'iii' brown as possibly complete at the high,
and wave 'iv' brown underway as I write.
The high of wave 'i' brown at 112.97 should not be broken in this case.

The alternate view is that wave [i] grey is already complete, it is a bit early to tell at this stage.
For tomorrow watch for a three wave correction in wave 'iv', wave 'v' should then follow.

USDJPY is leading the way in the broader USD rally,
The other pairs should follow soon.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Import Prices m/m, Mortgage Delinquencies, Crude Oil Inventories.

THe DOW turned back down this evening and has broken into the price territory of last Thursdays high
So far the decline is in three waves, but it could develop further into an impulse wave to the downside.

The decline today brought with it an RSI sell signal on the 4hr chart with a centreline cross to the downside.
And there is a definite bearish divergence visible also.
So again the DOW is giving mixed messages.
The first real sign of a turn down will be a break of the 20845 level
this is the previous fourth wave low of one lesser degree.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Import Prices m/m, Mortgage Delinquencies, Crude Oil Inventories.

GOLD is now recovering from oversold conditions not seen in six months.
But the price is sitting a full $100 higher than that occasion!
The math does not add up on this one!

Wave (ii) blue has been a deep decline!
But I still believe it to be corrective in nature.
Wave (iii) should begin in earnest.

This evenings close brought with it a spike rally which saw the price rise $12 in the last hour of trading.
Todays low was 1214.24,
This is also the level projected for wave 'c' brown by the 161.8% extension of wave 'a' brown
So lets see if we get a complete five waves up off that low.
It could prove to be the low we have been waiting for.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

 

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