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Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis-05-04-17 GOLD is ready to rocket, DOW displays bearish action.

EURUSD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: N/A. USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, Unemployment Rate.

Evenin all!

EURUSD popped higher today as expected,
The triangle form did not hold as the price dropped a few points below the wave 'c' label in last nights update.
It seems a running flat is the best interpretation of the recent wave 'iv' pink.

The upper target was set at about 1.1020, the price is at 1.0985 as I write this.
wave 'v' pink reached equality with wave 'i' pink at this very price.
So;
it is time to start looking for a turn down from here.

If we get a tag of the upper trend line and an impulsive looking decline in five waves,
That will put the last nail in the coffin of this rally.

GBPUSD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, Unemployment Rate.

I have labelled GBPUSD as a bearish set of one two waves to the downside today.
Cable briefly broke support at the previous low of wave 'i' pink and has since rallied in three waves again.
Opening up the possibility of a serious decline on the cards here.

The 4hr momentum setup is still flashing a sell signal with a centreline cross to the downside.
And the head and shoulders pattern continues to develop.
Overall the bearish signals are lining up.
From here I am watching for a break below wave '1' grey again,
and if the price continues to decline below 1.2774, the previous fourth wave
Then we can say the top is in.

USDJPY

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: N/A. USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, Unemployment Rate.

Well,
Today the price reached the target of 113.00, the high of the day was 113.04!
It looks quite likely that that wave (iii) green is complete at todays high.
From the high, the price turned down again in a possible beginning of wave (iv) green.

I am expecting either a ZigZag correction or triangle in wave (iv) green.
The guideline of alteration of corrective waves suggests this as wave (ii) green was a Flat correction.
We will see soon enough.
It looks like wave (iv) will take until the middle of next week to complete.
A likely target for wave (iv) is at the 111.00 area, the previous wave 'iv'.
So;
For tomorrow, watch for wave 'a' brown to complete and wave 'b' to begin.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, Unemployment Rate.

This afternoons action in the DOW is again hinting at a top.
I am toying with the idea that wave 'v' pink has completed at todays high of 21010.
This would make it a failed fifth wave in an ending diagonal form.

I know this is an unlikely scenario, to say the least!
BUT;
This market is at a very significant turning point in the grand scheme of things
So an unorthodox top might well fit into well with that picture.

price more or less rejected the psychologically important 21000 level and then plunged down to brake previous support at wave (a) grey, but the real
This is not the type of price action you would expect in a bull market.
But it is exactly the action what I expect from a topping process.
Todays high was at 21011,
lets see if that holds and if 20845 is threatened again.

GOLD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks, Unemployment Rate.

GOLD is now registering a more oversold extreme than at any time for the last year according to the RSI on the 4hr chart!
That fact alone is turning me super bullish.
Oversold extremes at higher lows, mean the market is nowhere near ready to accept a rising price.
At this point,
everyone how wanted to sell has done so, and there is only one way to go from here.

The GOLD price is now primed for a huge rally!

I am again looking at the 62% retracement level at 1233.
When the market creates a higher low above that point it will signal the turn is in.
The correction of late have been steep,
Which correctly identify them as second waves.
From here we are expecting third waves to come in, and this will get interesting indeed!