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Daily-Elliott-wave-analysis-04-25-17 wave count calls 480 point DOW rally! what now?

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EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: N/A. USD: Crude Oil Inventories. 

Bon soir, mes amis!

EURUSD pushed higher today making Sundays high, the high of wave '3' green within wave 'c' pink.
The correction yesterday formed a contracting triangle in wave '4' green,
The market is now pushing higher in wave '5' green.
Once complete this will close out the larger pattern in wave '2' blue.

The market is now in EURO Euphoric mode!
So this will likely end badly for those who have piled on this week.

The price will meet the larger trend channel in wave '2' blue at about 1.0990.
The 161.8% FIbonacci extension of wave 'a' pink gives us a projection for wave 'c' pink at 1.1020.
So that is the target zone for this rally in wave 'c' pink to complete.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: N/A. USD: Crude Oil Inventories. 

Cable is stuck in a contracting pattern today,
I have labelled the price action as a contracting triangle within wave 'iv' pink.
This pattern could be complete at todays low of 1.2774.

The target for wave 'v' to complete lies at about 1.2970, where the price would pop out over the upper trend line of the trend channel.

The RSI and MACD are flashing warning signs right now, so it is time to be vigilant.
The RSI on the 4hr chart is flirting with a centreline cross to the downside.
So I am looking for signs of a turn down from here on.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

USDJPY

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width="5"][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: Monetary Policy Statement. USD: Crude Oil Inventories.

The USDJPY wave count worked a charm today with a nice 160 point rally off the lows of wave '4' pink.

The price is now reaching the highs of wave 'iii' brown and should top out at nearby levels.
The next resistance level lies at 111.59, a break of that level will add further fuel to the bullish case.

The price has now broken up through the larger trend channel and should use that as support from here on in if the bullish wave count is correct.
So;
That leaves wave 'iv' and 'v' brown left ahead to complete wave (iii) green.
The price should begin a wave 'iv' correction soon, watch for a triangle in wave 'iv' as wave 'ii' brown was a flat.

USDJPY is leading the way in the larger Dollar rally thesis,
So I expect the other two pairs to follow along soon enough.
Which of course means large declines are on the table for both EURUSD and GBPUSD.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Crude Oil Inventories. 

The rally was expected and the rally came!
On friday night the price stood at 20540 and the wave count called for a continued rally this week.
Todays high reached 21025.
Thats a 480 point rally in the last few days.

The DOW reached and exceeded the 20890 target today as previous wave count expected.
But the rally took out the previous wave [ii] high, thereby invalidating the recent wave count.

I have updated the the wave count to the next best interpretation.
That is a leading diagonal wave [i] green and a now completing expanded flat wave [ii] green.

This wave count keeps the bearish overall outlook as this market is registering severe overbought and overbullish conditions.
The likes not seen for the last two decades!
The bearish longterm outlook will not change, even if we get one last high.

For now the all time high must hold at 21172.
And the price must turn down from here.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width="2/3"][vc_custom_heading text="30 min" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width="1/3"][vc_custom_heading text="4 Hours" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text="Daily" use_theme_fonts="yes"][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Crude Oil Inventories. 

GOLD has drifted lower again today.
This puts the current operating wave count under pressure.
The price is pips away from invalidating the current interpretation.

In the longer term this is presenting another significant buying opportunity, given the larger wave count.
If the price breaks 1260.98 it will mean that the wave structure is likely creating an internal wave extensioon in wave [iii] green on the 4hr chart.
I will deal with that tomorrow if it happens.

There is another alternate high for wave (i) blue which would allow for a break of that low.
But it is wait and see time right now.
Tomorrows action might clear things up slightly.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]